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Inferno market report: JP Morgan says sell your dollars

The bank warns the dollar’s dominance could be coming to an end, and to prepare accordingly. 

 

JP Morgan has urged its international high net-worth clients to reduce their exposure to the dollar in favour of gold and international currencies

 

The investment bank did not recommend them to buy bitcoin, but the wider effect could be the same. The bank’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, is famous in cryptocurrency circles for denouncing Bitcoin as a scam and then going on to launch JPM Coin. Now, Dimon is inadvertently doing his bit for the crypto world again by warning that the days of the dollar’s dominance may be coming to an end.

 

The portfolios of its high net-worth clients are exposed to the dollar to the tune of around 80%. The bank’s analysts suggest cutting that by up to half, down to just 40%, replacing it with gold, Chinese renminbi, euros, Swiss franc and even the British pound.

 

‘The US dollar has been the world’s dominant reserve currency for almost a century,’ the bank’s strategist Craig Cohen wrote. ‘However, we believe the dollar could lose its status as the world’s dominant currency… due to structural reasons as well as cyclical impediments.’

 

Various currencies have been in the news recently, competing to see which can do worst. China’s Yuan is at a ten-year low, prompting President Trump to renew his accusations of currency manipulation, and urge the Fed to drop interest rates and devalue the dollar in turn. The stock markets have reacted with a sharp ‘correction’ to the trade wars. Meanwhile the British pound has been trading at close to a long-term low in the face of mounting fears of a no-deal Brexit.

 

Gold, on the other hand, recently hit a six-year high, and bitcoin appears to be correlating well with its own bull run. Max Keiser suggested that confidence in centralised institutions and fiat was at a multi-decade low. 

 

There is a growing narrative and awareness that the established authorities don’t have the answers, and that putting some money in an uncorrelated and independent asset class could be a very good idea. JP Morgan gave their take on that; the wider market will decide what it means for bitcoin.

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The Periodic Table of Crypto

Bitcoin is known as ‘Digital Gold’ due to its scarcity and high value. It’s the safe haven and reserve currency of the crypto world. What about other cryptos, though…?

 

Bitcoin: Digital Gold. It’s the original form of digital wealth. A store of value that crypto traders seek in times of uncertainty. The ultimate scarce digital asset: don’t be without it.

 

Litecoin: Digital Silver. Still a scarce asset, though not so scarce as digital gold. It’s more volatile, just like physical silver. It’s more useful as a transactional currency than a store of value, but it has good network effect and isn’t going out of fashion. Totally manipulated, of course.

 

Ethereum: Digital Plutonium. Really cool. Powerful when handled carefully. Nuclear-scale disaster if you don’t know what you’re doing. Make sure you store it safely. Some wallets are like leaky reactor cores. Yes, Parity. I’m looking at you.

 

Ripple: Digital Chromium. Shiny shiny shiny!! Look at this, it must be super valuable! I’m so smart for buying a ton of it while it’s so cheap!! Shiny!! Wait, what? There’s 144,633 trillion more tons of this stuff in the ground? Dammit.

 

BCash: Digital Lead. It’s vaguely shiny, but rather dull. Isn’t worth much, though even lead has its value. But it is rather toxic and frankly you could do a lot better. A bag of this can feel heavy.

 

Libra: Digital Iron. Utilitarian. Serves a purpose, gets the job done. Useful for making weapons to beat the US government with, though you’d better believe they’re going to beat you back. Nothing particularly special or different, there’s going to be a lot of it, but it’s handy as far as it goes.

 

Tether: Digital rust. Seems so good, strong, useful. But then you realise that what was once so good is a flaking pile of dirty crap.

BSV: Digital Turds. You can gold plate a turd but it’s still a turd. Just like real turds, there will always be people who have a nasty fascination with digital turds and can’t help playing with them. But they still stink and normal people will avoid them like the plague they are.

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Sunday Inferno summary

It’s the weekend once again, so here is our regular round up of news, market analysis and Inferno-style fun:

That’s all! We’ll be back next week with more of the same.

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Green alts and ham

When Sam-I-am persists in pestering a grumpy grouch to buy a bag of alts, the grouch turns abusive and violent – teaching us all that we should buy and hold only bitcoin!

 

I am Sam

Sam I am

Do you like green eggs and ham?

 

I do not like green eggs and ham

I do not like them, Sam I am

 

Then… would you like to buy my alts?

They’re nice and tasty with some salt.

 

I’m already salty, Sam. 

Your altcoin shilling is a scam.

I’ve bought enough of all your alts,

The fact I have them is your fault!

 

Hmmm. But how about some XRP?

It’s oversold as it can be!

 

Sam. I do not want your XRP,

It’s going to crash as you can see.

And I already have a ton

Of worthless alts and that is one!

 

Well how about some Bitcoin Cash?

Some EOS, TRON, IOTA, DASH?

I know your bags are heavy, sir,

But take whichever you prefer!

 

Sam. I have them all (no BTC).

My bags are heavy as can be.

In fact you are the very reason.

You told me it would be alts season!

 

Ah yes, the alts will soon explode!

Back the truck up! Buy a load!

Don’t miss the train, it’s leaving soon.

And we’ll be going to the moon!

 

Your altcoins suck, you stupid clown

The only road they’re on is down.

And every time they try to climb,

Bitcoin spikes another time!

 

The perfect time to buy more cheap!

I really think you’d love a heap. 

I’ll do a deal on Doge or BAT

What would you say to one like that?

 

I think I have a better plan,

For where to put your altcoins, Sam.

Now turn around; this might feel wrong:

I’ll shove them back where they belong!

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Friday Inferno market update

TL;DR bump, bump, bumping on the ceiling.

 

Bitcoin is keeping traders on the edge of their seats, flipping from bullish to bearish and back repeatedly over the course of recent days. 

 

We have a collection of resistance factors in play in the same area, and bitcoin has now risen to meet these, backed off, and risen again several times. A strong move higher at the beginning of last week ran out of steam in the $12k area.

 

Firstly, there is the down-sloping resistance line that joins the year high of $13,880 with the next, lower high and then the more recent lower high. Then there’s the 23% fib level just below $12,400. Lastly, the $12k level is already an established support/resistance zone going back to 2017.

 

Bitcoin has ranged in the zone immediately above $11,500 all week now, with the bottom of that area marked by the 38% fib. RSI readings on the shorter-term timeframes have cooled off. While the daily is still high, it remains below 70. 

 

In summary, it’s on a knife edge. Bitcoin could go either way, and traders are waiting for the signal they need to take their position. Whichever happens, when it does go one way or the other, it’s likely to go hard.

 

There are reasons to be short-to-medium term bullish. Bitcoin Dominance continues to trend upwards, almost touching 70. The crypto world as a whole is expecting more from bitcoin and positioning accordingly. Meanwhile the key moving averages are slowly moving upwards, with the 50-day MA just under $11,000. These will act as further support as they rise.

 

But with bitcoin, you can never discount the wildcard, and there has been lots of stop-loss hunting going on, as suggested by the fast moves within a relatively narrow range. Bots programmed to push the market around to margin-call other traders have been at work, pending the breakout up or down. It’s quite possible we’ll see another major fakeout or shakeout – a big move up or down, followed by an opposite and even larger move. 

 

But this correction phase has now lasted over 6 weeks. We can expect resolution soon. $8,000 or $13,000–$14,000 is on the cards soon (and if you believe Max Keiser, $15k).

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Bitcoin Dominance at 70%, could hit 80%

Bitcoin now represents a proportion of overall crypto market cap not seen for two and a half years.

 

The bitcoin rally that started in April caught almost everyone off-guard. And while many of the community have experienced previous parabolic rallies, this one is different.

 

This time, all eyes are on BTC, right from day 1. In the past, the alts have often been dragged along for the ride – some gaining significantly in BTC terms, even as BTC gains in USD terms. The result has been a kind of leveraged increase. 

 

Take 2017, for example. A look at the Bitcoin Dominance chart shows what happened. The alts rally essentially had three stages. In the first, which started in March 2017, Bitcoin lost market share. Alts gained in BTC terms, going from around 15% of the market to over 60% just three months later. In the same period, bitcoin tripled in price from around $1,000 to $3,000. That’s (roughly) a 10x increase for alts.

 

Then there was a correction phase for the alts in BTC terms, as bitcoin’s rise accelerated. Over the next six months, Bitcoin Dominance rose back to 60%, as the #1 currency went into a parabolic rise. And then the final phase. Bitcoin topped out at $20k and money rushed into underpriced alts. By January 2018, Dominance was down to 33% as a result.

 

It’s been trending upwards ever since, the alts atrophying market share back to Bitcoin. And when bitcoin went parabolic earlier this year, it gained in Dominance too, just like in the second phase of the previous bull market.

 

Right now, Dominance stands at almost 70%. There’s no sign of it stopping yet, either. The direction of movement is very clear, and until the market has some sense that bitcoin’s long-term rise is ending, there’s no reason for money to go back into alts. Max Keiser has suggested that Dominance could hit 80% – close to its long term level, before the alts explosion of 2017. That would mean yet more pain for the alts, many of which are down at BTC lows, even if bitcoin’s rise has meant they maintain or gain dollar value.

 

The alts aren’t dead, like Keiser says, but many are on life support. It could be a long time, if ever, before they reach their all-time highs. Bitcoin is the king, and until it shows signs of stopping, that’s where the attention is. Given this rally is just a few months old, it could be a while to go yet.

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Litecoin halvening – what next?

Reduced block rewards for Litecoin miners raise questions for hashrate and price – with implications for Bitcoin’s own halvening next year.

 

Litecoin hit a major milestone earlier this week, with its third halving. Block rewards fell from 25 LTC to 12.5 LTC. Like Bitcoin, Litecoin halvings happen every four years, so the next one will take place in 2023. 

 

Litecoin is worth watching because it often signals what Bitcoin will do. It’s not exactly the same as Bitcoin, of course. But Litecoin is a large, well-established proof-of-work network, with a large trading community and high liquidity. So it’s a reasonable way of gauging Bitcoin’s future moves.

 

Litecoin has a total supply of 84 million LTC – four times the supply of Bitcoin. 63 million, or around three-quarters of these, have now been mined. With 12.5 new LTC being created every 2.5 minutes, that’s 2.6 million new LTC per year, or a little over 4%.

 

Litecoin and Bitcoin

Since block rewards are cut in half, it’s reasonable to expect some smaller miners to turn off their rigs – it becomes uneconomical to mine unless the price rises to compensate for the reduced supply. Just after the halving, Litecoin creator Charlie Lee tweeted,’Since the halving, 12 blocks have been found in 17 minutes. Seems like miners have not shut off their hashrate at all. Instead, we are mining at a rate of a block every 1.4 minutes on average, which is much faster than the expected 2.5 minutes. Litecoin network is healthy!’

 

It’s still early days, but can we gain a picture of what’s happening right now? And whether the same might occur for Bitcoin at its own Halvening in May 2020?

 

Firstly, price spiked around the halving itself, before dropping sharply. Overall, though, LTC is up over 200% in USD this year, even if it’s down in BTC terms.

 

Hashrate does seem to be holding steady. It’s still a little early to know for sure, but it appears that most miners have factored in the change. No doubt some will go offline in the coming weeks, but for now, little seems to have changed.

 

All of this suggests that miners and traders have been planning well in advance. The reduction in block rewards was priced in over a period of around 6 months. 

 

If we see the same for Bitcoin – if – then that looks like a major Christmas rally could be on the cards, and the network will remain strong post-halving.

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Inferno Tuesday market report

There have been big moves on the market with a rise above $12k – and Max Keiser predicting $15k this week.

 

Bitcoin has proven extremely strong this week, breaking multiple key resistance levels. On Saturday it pushed through the 50-day moving average. Yesterday, BTC broke the important $11.2k resistance zone, which marked the last lower high of this correction leg. There was a small correction when it touched the top of the downward-sloping resistance line from the recent high of $13,880, located around $12k, but this morning it broke through it convincingly.

 

The next target is the recent major high of $13,200, followed by a renewed attack on the year’s high and a break of $14,000. Max Keiser is optimistic, having predicted $15,000 is incoming.

 

Ideally, we need to see the daily candle close above $12,000 to make sure this isn’t a fakeout (as appeared to be the case yesterday). But bitcoin seems to have ended its correction stage, making a move higher on respectable volume. Right now the daily RSI is still below 70, meaning this leg of the rally may have a little further to go, before BTC retraces and/or consolidates.

 

Alt death

Of course, there’s a downside to bitcoin’s strength. Alts are atrophying market share to BTC. The King is just getting more and more powerful, and there’s no sign of Alts Season. Bitcoin Dominance stands at 69%, and has been trending upwards ever since the bull market started in April. Max Keiser predicts Bitcoin Dominance could hit 80%.

 

Meanwhile, there are shenanigans afoot in the global markets, which is likely helping to drive interest in BTC. Gold has hit a 6-year high on economic worries. The Chinese Yuan is at 10-year low, leading the US to brand China a ‘Currency Manipulator’. There’s evidence that Chinese citizens are buying BTC, to try to store value as the Yuan is devalued further.

 

Lastly, Litecoin’s halvening is today. Watch what happens closely with Litecoin, because it can be a signpost or early warning for what later happens with Bitcoin.

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Max Keiser – BTC could go to $15k this week

The perma-bull sees $100k per bitcoin in the medium-term future.

 

Max Keiser has been buying and promoting bitcoin since it was $1. The former Wall Street trader is big on gold and bitcoin, seeing the digital currency as the heir to shiny yellow metal. While Keiser’s long-term predictions for bitcoin are nothing new – he has repeatedly stated he expects $100,000 per BTC in the relatively near term, and has even entertained McAfee’s prediction of $1 million by the end of 2020 – this time, he has chosen a much closer target for his optimistic forecast.

 

On Saturday, Keiser tweeted, ‘I’m sensing #Bitcoin will cross $15,000 this week. Confidence in central governments, central banks, and centralized, fiat money is at a multi-decade low.’ He says he even spent another $10,000 on BTC, he was so confident.

 

The self-described ‘tweet poet’ later later explained, ‘Fiat chaos engulfing global economy. A perfect storm for #Bitcoin — up $1,000 since I mentioned earlier today; my gut feeling is, we see $15,000 this week.’

 

The background to this forecast is the mess of different factors pointing to serious problems ahead for the global economy. There are the trade wars between China and the US, which show no signs of abating; when Trump announced further tariffs on Chinese imports last week, the stock markets fell heavily. The Federal Reserve also cut interest rates, reflecting an adjustment in the light of slightly weaker growth prospects than expected.

 

Then of course there is Brexit, and the threat of the UK leaving the EU without a deal. This has increased sharply since Boris Johnson became the new Prime Minister, and it leaves the whole European trading bloc vulnerable. That’s to say nothing of the continuing problems in Venezuela and elsewhere in Latin America, or the threat from a nuclear North Korea.

 

Keiser is right; trust in centralised institutions is at a multi-decade low, and Bitcoin is a means to hedge and move wealth without them. He is known for his optimistic predictions about bitcoin, which do not always prove correct. On the other hand, he has also proven right about bitcoin’s inexorable growth since 2011.

 

Inferno’s conclusion? It could be a very bullish week for bitcoin, as the recent correction comes to an end. $15k feels like a little too much to us – but if it’s offered, we’ll take it.

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Sunday Inferno round-up

Here it is, folks: our regular Sunday summary of Inferno news, articles and market insights. Here’s what’s been going on this week:

We’ll be back with more tomorrow, so enjoy what remains of your weekend and stay tuned!

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