TL;DR BTC has held $10,000 – so far. The weekly close will be informative, and time is running out on this correction.
Bitcoin has once again kept traders on the edge of their seats this week, with a series of moves that will have taken many by surprise. After the abrupt plunge below $9,500 last Thursday, bitcoin recovered and by Tuesday looked set to test the $11k line.
It was not to be, with swift rejection just below $11,000. Bitcoin once again dropped, falling beneath $10,000 once again, though this time more weakly. Every daily close has been above $10,000, and this appears to be the immediate zone to watch. A close substantially below $10,000 (especially $9,800) could signal more downside. For now, however, that line is holding.
There are a handful of bullish factors: aside from $10,000 being respected, the 100-day moving average has also been held, after numerous corrections to this level. That line continues to rise to meet price, and will soon hit $10k itself. Another positive indicator is the Fear and Greed Index, which recently put in its lowest ever day – an extremely fearful 5. This is lower even than the days immediately following the bubble bursting from $20,000, when the index hit 8. While this signals Extreme Fear, this is broadly bullish since it acts as a good contrarian indicator (bears have all panic sold).
More bearish factors include the ‘futures gap’ which could signal a move back down to the $8,000 region. We also have to consider the 21-week EMA, another key level in a bull market and a regular target for corrections. This currently sits at just below $9,000, though the nature of the indicator means that it is moving up fast.
Lastly, we will throw in the ‘fundamental’ of Bakkt’s launch, scheduled for 23 September – one month today. While this will likely see volatility in the markets as short-term traders seek to profit by selling the news, it will also see institutional money start to come in from the sidelines – amplifying the effect we have seen already and that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has mentioned: ‘Whether institutions were going to adopt crypto or not was an open question about 12 months ago. I think it’s safe to say we now know the answer. We’re seeing $200-400M a week in new crypto deposits come in from institutional customers.’
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