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Crypto trading analysis: why you’re probably doing it wrong

Crypto trading analysis: why you’re probably doing it wrong


Anyone who confidently gives you a bitcoin price prediction – especially for the short term – is a charlatan.


Bitcoin price prediction is a huge part of the crypto sector. There is a whole industry of ‘experts’ looking to make a living – not from trading, but from ‘advising’ others how to trade. Some of these will confidently tell you where bitcoin is going to go. The more confident they are, and the more short-term their predictions, the more you should view them with skepticism.


Let’s note first off, there’s a saying. Those who can, do. Those who can’t, teach. Those who write ‘analysis’ and predictions often have little (successful) experience of trading. Unsurprisingly, those who are good at what they do either operate on their own, or run subscription services. Good information is valuable, after all.


The thing is, bad information is valuable too, in its own way. Simplifying matters a little, every ‘good’ trade has a ‘bad’ trader on the other side of it. Half of all money that takes a position must be wrong. The disclaimers on most forex platforms suggest that around 10% of successful traders are taking that money from the 90% of failures.


Aside from low quality, there’s a reality that few analysts mention – which is that markets just don’t work the way people think.


Masses and classes

Markets are fluid, evolving, and – especially in the short-term – irrational. Calling markets consistently is actually impossible. The best traders don’t do this at all. What they really do is adapt their thinking as they see the situation changing, looking to minimise risk while maximising return. That way, it doesn’t matter if they make losing trades more often than winning ones (and many do lose often). The point is that the losses are small, thanks to their risk control, and the wins are big, thanks to the return potential of those trades.


The other thing is, don’t rely on ‘news’ to drive price. Expert traders sometimes talk about information for the masses, and information for the classes (this video is a great introduction). ‘Information’ provided by the mainstream media is useless, because professional traders know it before it hits the headlines.


For the record, Inferno won’t give you price predictions. What we do is give a sense of the overall market. We won’t tell you what is going to happen, because no one knows that. But we can help you figure out where the areas of risk and opportunity lie.

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