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Get your hot Goxcoins now!

Back in 2014 the last bear market was kicked off in style by the collapse of MtGox, the largest bitcoin exchange around at the time. Having topped out in a classic bubble at the end of 2013, the market was just looking for a reason to confirm its hunch that BTC was still badly overvalued. Gox closing its doors and taking 850,000 BTC with it did the job.

 

Since then Gox has continued to cast a long shadow. The recovery of 200,000 ‘mislaid’ coins held out some hope that users would one day get some money back, and indeed that has now – apparently against all odds – come to pass. (Under Japanese law typically everything would be sold to repay creditors rather than assets being distributed directly, but a special ruling has been made in this case after the crypto world reacted with dismay after the trustee cashed out a tranche and ostensibly crashed the market. Gox will now be dealt with as a civil rehabilitation case rather than a bankruptcy.)

 

Around $1 billion of funds are at stake – the balance of the 200k BTC left. These will now be distributed pro-rata to Gox holders who sign up with the online claim filing system that has been set up (see https://claims.mtgox.com/assets/index.html). The deadline for submissions is 22 October.

 

160k BTC incoming

The reason this is now featuring again in the crypto news is because, after the price drop that took place a couple of weeks, the crypto world is hyper-attuned to the impact of whales cashing out.

 

What will be the impact of 160,000 BTC being distributed to old holders? In BTC terms, they will receive just a sixth of what they lost, but the massive bull market of 2017 means they will probably break even in fiat terms.

 

Dire warnings have been given that these coins will flood and crash the market, and that is certainly possible. Many people may just want to pull out their capital and walk away. Others, naturally, with continue to hold. At this point in the market cycle, bitcoin is a gift – whatever the short-term fluctuations, the medium term looks good as BTC builds a solid base around $6k.

 

As ever, the most likely scenario lies between the extremes. There may be some impact on the market of sellers who just want their cash. But you also have to factor in a large number of bitcoiners who have stuck around since 2014, albeit with burned fingers, and are pleased to get this windfall. True believers will put it in cold storage and carry on hodling.

 

Inferno’s opinion: this event will be priced in long before the distribution takes place. With everything going on in the crypto world right now, old Goxers selling coins here and there will just be background noise against the broader signal.

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Ten Ways to be an Emotional, Unsuccessful Crypto Trader

Want to lose your money, pride, reputation, friends, family and home? Just follow these simple rules.

 

In a Bull Market, everyone’s happy. There was a time last year when no one who had bought and held bitcoin had lost money. When the price makes ATHs on a weekly basis, it’s all good.

 

Then came the Bear. Nine months into the crypto winter, holders and traders are feeling the pinch. Many have bailed already, nursing burned fingers and wounded pride. Others are wary of further falls, terrified the market might plummet and wipe them out.

 

These are the times that test a person. Fortunes and futures are forged in a bear market like this one. But it’s almost impossible to hold your nerve and make good decisions. The markets are driven by emotion, and it’s human nature to get caught up in that. Staying objective can feel almost impossible.

 

What not to do

Rather than give you advice about how to act under this pressure, we thought it would be easier to describe the behaviours that will lead to loss of funds, pride, reputation, and possibly – if you really take them to heart – your friends, family and home.

 

So if you really want to look back in five years and know that things could have been very, very different, follow these ten easy rules:

 

  1. Trust your instincts. Your feelings never lie, right? That creaking noise downstairs really was an axe murderer; that brief eye contact with the girl at the coffee shop definitely means she loves you; and if it just kind of feels like time to sell, it is.
  2. Follow the herd. There’s safety in numbers. If you’re uncertain which way the market’s going, just do what everyone else is doing.
  3. Listen to the experts – people like Warren Buffett, Jamie Dimon and Agustin Carstens. These guys have extensive experience in investment and banking in the conventional financial sector, so they are ideally placed to comment on completely new technological and economic paradigms that lie far outside of their comfort zones and threaten their vested interests.
  4. Learn to read charts properly. If it’s going up, that logically means it’s going to continue going up. If it’s going down, it’s going to keep going down. Just like when you look out of the window and it’s raining, it means it’s going to keep raining for ever.
  5. CNBC is a better source of informed opinion about the crypto markets than anyone else. They’ve been doing this for literally months.
  6. Some guy you’ve never met on Twitter has your best interests at heart. If he tells you now is the time to buy a coin, it’s because he wants you to be rich. If he speaks with authority, it’s because he’s getting his information from reliable crypto insiders.
  7. Margin trading is an excellent way for newcomers to make enormous gains. Leveraging your position also amplifies your emotional attunement to the crypto markets, making them easier to read – kind of like tightrope walking without a safety net heightens your sense of balance.
  8. Forget HODLing. Those who can, trade. Look at it this way: if you have 10 BTC and you HODL, in ten years you’ll have 10 BTC. But if you trade, it could be 1,000 BTC. Only fools HODL.
  9. Bear markets are NOT an opportunity. No one ever succeeded by buying low, selling high.
  10. You don’t have time for due diligence, and it will be fine anyway. ICO issuers are by nature competent, honest and hardworking people who have a robust and unique business plan to disrupt billion-dollar markets. Invest or miss out.

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Friday Inferno market report

Just as two weeks ago the market’s confidence turned to dismay, this week its pessimism was steamrollered with a $400 leap in price. What can we expect from the week ahead?

The main purpose of the market, said American investor Bernard Baruch, is to make fools of as many people as possible. That happened last week with traders’ near-universal confidence that the rally to $7,400 would continue, and it apparently happened again as sentiment turned bearish across the board with the drop to $6,100.

It’s a tough time to be a bitcoiner, especially a new one, given the mixture of hope, dashed expectation and market manipulation we’ve seen in the last couple of weeks. Whether you were long or short, there were surprises, and there can’t be many traders who called both the top and the bottom profitably.

At this point, we’ll zoom out to the daily, where the larger pattern becomes clear.

Since mid-January, when a large proportion of the froth had come off the bitcoin market, BTC has been trading in a tightening wedge. The bottom of that wedge has been the $6,000 zone and just below. Bitcoin has descended to and come off that area no fewer than five times now.

The upper bound of the wedge has fallen from $12,000 down to around $7,000. Bitcoin has risen to this level and then fallen four times.

 

Tightening range

With each oscillation, the swings in price get smaller. If the pattern continues, it will run out of time in the last week of October, when the top and bottom lines cross at around the $6,500 mark. At that point, the price has to cross one or other line. Thus we have just five weeks before this stage in the market cycle finally resolves, one way or the other.

 

 

But of course, it won’t take five weeks. These things rarely go all the way to the end. Traders see the writing on the wall and collectively make a decision before that. What we’re looking for is a convincing movement above or below the bounds of that triangle (currently $7,300 and $6,300, respectively), with volume. Price may rise or dip outside of it briefly — if so, be cautious, because that doesn’t mean it won’t reverse and end up going the other direction. These ‘fake-outs’ are common. We’ll only know for sure with hindsight, but look for the volume as well as the magnitude of the movement: together they indicate how committed traders are to the move.

At the time of writing, RSI on the 4h reads almost 70, heading into overbought territory, but appears to be taking a pause and is possibly levelling off. On the daily, momentum is gaining upward pace but is not yet over the 50 mark, so there’s plenty of room to go.

 

ETH capitulation by ICOs?

The same returning optimism is not true of ETH, which has seen very heavy selling in recent days. Almost 300,000 ETH has been sold in the last month by ICOs dumping their holdings. Trustnodes reports that 160,000 ETH were sold in just 10 days. This has always been a risk for the Ethereum ecosystem, as critics have warned: it’s one thing to collect tens of millions of dollars worth of ETH in your ICO, but at some point, you’re going to have to cash out to pay bills. And if the market is crashing, you need to sell fast to make sure you have enough fiat to continue work. Then it just becomes a huge competition between ICOs to see who can cash out fastest and get the least-worst prices for their ETH. Right now it looks pretty bleak for ETH, though it saw a strong bounce from its recent low just yesterday.

So the picture — at least for bitcoin — is looking up. Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, just tweeted his opinion that the bottom is in. The next decision by the SEC on the SolidX-VanEck ETF is due at the end of September, which will prove significant one way or the other.

But one last warning. That big Silk Road wallet that just sent a big chunk of coins to Bitfinex and likely sparked the last crash? There’s plenty more where that came from.

Breathe.

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Tuesday Inferno Analysis

The picture for BTC and the alts is looking good. As traders come back from their summer holidays, it looks like the bull is also back in town and growing stronger with each passing day.

 

On a technical level, it’s been a great couple of weeks for BTC, as traders have pushed up through multiple layers of resistance. Regular pull-backs have ensured the market doesn’t get ahead of itself too fast, making this a strong and sustainable rally. The most immediate support levels at $6,800 and $7,000 held on tests. At the time of writing, BTC is bumping against the ceiling of downward-sloping support, with the next target to break around the $7,500 zone.

 

On the daily chart, we’re sat between the 50 and 200 moving averages, and RSI is heading north – though not yet into overbought territory. A look at the daily RSI over the last several months shows that it has been an excellent indicator for buying and (particularly) selling. We would advise caution, though: in the last bull market, there were periods when the daily RSI spent significant periods of time over 70, and selling there would have meant missing out. When BTC goes into bull mode it’s a raging bull, and the rules change.

 

The technical picture is broadly positive for now, then, though breaking $7,500 and then $8,000 would consolidate that impression. Pushing above the 200 MA would give traders a confidence boost, and likely when $10k is breached there will be another wave of media interest and speculation (of both kinds).

 

Right now, volumes are still lower than they were earlier in the year or at the end of 2017. Nevertheless, the mood has changed over the last month. More longs are opening on the futures markets, with CME reporting both a reduction in shorts and an increase in longs. On top of that, another 100 million USDT have recently been printed, suggesting incoming demand. Big money (which usually equals smart money) is signposting its expectations.

 

On the other side of the coin, one other factor that has attracted interest in recent days is the movement of large quantities of bitcoins from a wallet that has been dormant since 2014. Around $100 million has apparently been moved to Bitfinex and Binance, presumably to sell for USD and altcoins, respectively. We’ll take a closer look at this tomorrow, but that could indicate considerable sell pressure in the short term. Right now, though, the market doesn’t seem to care.

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Review: Carstens ‘simply superb’ in comic role as Central Bankers’ Central Banker

Europe’s finest up-and-coming comedian is worthy of Ali G in his satirical creation as the head of the fictional ‘Bank of International Settlements’.

 

It’s not often that a comedian is brave enough to take on a subject as dry as global banking, but Agustin Carstens – a previously little-known performance artist from Mexico – has successfully done just that. For the last several months, Carstens has been touring Europe, remaining in-character at all times, delivering weighty speeches about the perils facing the global economy from an irresponsible younger generation obsessed with digital cash. We were recently able to take in one of his gigs – and were absolutely blown away by his act.

 

The genius of Carstens is not in his deadpan delivery – a style long employed by comedians, perhaps most notably the UK’s Jack Dee. It is the sheer perfection with which he walks the unlikely line he has chosen. Watching him perform, unsuspecting audiences are left with the distinct impression that Carstens genuinely believes his own message, and are uncertain whether they should be laughing with him or at him: an unsettling but simultaneously riotously hilarious experience. Just as Sacha Baron Cohen immersed himself in his comic creation Ali G – the ‘gangster from Staines’ who mocked his guests and their desperation to come across well to the public by inducing them to agree to his own shocking or ridiculous views – so Carstens takes the role of Head of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) to a new level of post-ironic satire.

 

Carstens is simply superb as the “Head of the BIS”… His figure is larger-than-life, his demeanour entitled, his message strident, his tone increasingly desperate – his comic creation faultless.’

– Cassius (writer and entertainment critic)

 

During the course of his ‘presentations’ – delivered to journalists and groups of notable figures from the world of finance and economics – Carstens never once slips out of character, as he harangues the world beyond the cameras about the dangers of digital money and the new economic paradigms it represents. In doing so, he poses the wickedly funny question to the nascent industry he addresses: ‘How dare you try to muscle in on the profits of injustice the banks have monopolised for a hundred years?’

 

Take this excerpt of one of his most recent interviews, given to the journalist of a major Basel news outlet (the journalist, naturally, is unaware of the comedic nature of Carstens’ endeavour, tacitly accepting the existence of the fictional BIS and thereby flaunting his ignorance of the global economics it is his job to cover). ‘My message to young people would be: Stop trying to create money! … Young people should use their many talents and skills for innovation, not reinventing money. It’s a fallacy to think money can be created from nothing.’

 

With a nod to South Park’s Mr Mackey (‘Crypto is bad, mkay?’), Carstens pleads with the youth of today to give up their naive ways of creating money from nothing. And, like Mr Mackey, who ignores his own classroom diatribe and plunges himself into a lifestyle of drug-taking, Carstens smoothly glosses over the hypocrisy of the world’s central banks, for whom he is the central figure. With the effects of the Global Financial Crisis still undermining the prosperity of ordinary people – and precisely the younger generation he lectures bearing the brunt of the pain they are innocent of causing – the head of the BIS knows better than anyone that central banks have hardly acquitted themselves well. But ‘Central banks are trusted,’ he comments – his composure never once faltering with so much as a smirk at the irony.

 

It is this incisive, biting wit framed by his utterly convincing delivery that makes Carstens the rising star he is and the comedy great he is destined to become. From his evident depth of knowledge of economics (from which he naturally cherry-picks only the most convenient facts for his message) to his imposing physical presence and image as the stereotypical bankster, his commitment to his character is absolute.

 

Agustin, we salute you!

 

You can read more about Europe’s #1 financial comedian on Carstens’ website, at https://www.bis.org/author/agustin_carstens.htm.

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Inferno review: Blockfolio

This app allows you to track the value of your crypto portfolio easily. It includes all major cryptos and has real-time, accurate price feeds. Be warned, though, it’s dangerously addictive.

 

If you’re a crypto investor with several different coins in your portfolio – or potentially dozens – then you’ll need a way to track their value. There are various different apps that allow an at-a-glance overview of your current crypto net worth. Some are fine, some clunky or hard to use. Some only have a decent web interface. Some work ok but the price feeds are drawn from limited exchanges, so they miss out certain cryptos or offer distorted valuations.

 

There’s a reason Blockfolio is a market leader. It manages to provide a user experience that is (generally) slick and intuitive, while providing accurate price feeds for a massive range of crypto coins and tokens.

 

There are iOS and Android versions and it’s free to download. Getting started is easy, though there’s just one minor UX hurdle that needs a moment or two to figure out. Adding coins is simple, but sometimes the app is just a little bit too clever for its own good. It’s designed to allow you to reallocate assets within your portfolio – e.g. sell LTC for BTC – and track valuation up to and from the time of the exchange. If you’re using it for that purpose, fine, but if you just want a summary of your portfolio it’s a bit much. You can simply edit coin entries directly, but you’ll need to swipe right to the ‘Holdings’ menu and change it there, rather than alter it on the main screen for that entry in your portfolio.

 

But in general, this is by far the best and easiest way to keep up to date with the crypto markets and how they affect you. You can also access news, receive price signals and get alerts for specific events.

 

Be warned, though: in critical market conditions you’re likely to find yourself checking the app multiple times per day. It can get dangerously obsessive. You’ve been warned.

Find out more at https://blockfolio.com/.

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Half of Americans unfamiliar with crypto; quarter of the rest bullish

A poll of 1,000 Americans undertaken back in April has been published, giving a new picture to the average citizen’s outlook on the crypto markets.

 

It turns out that despite massive media interest last year, almost half of all Americans are still unfamiliar with bitcoin and other cryptos. Of the ones who do know about them, opinions differ substantially.

 

24 percent believe the value of crypto will perform positively in the next year, while 29 percent believe it will fall. A further 35 percent didn’t comment on overall trend, but expected wild fluctuations. The remaining 12 percent believe it will be stable.

 

What is interesting is the general lack of due diligence and research around any investment by financial decision-makers. Almost a third of Americans say they make high-risk investments – around the same number as say they do no research into investments and investment strategy at all.

 

Meanwhile, a survey of 5,761 Americans held at the beginning of the year found that just 5 percent owned any crypto, while a fifth were considering adding crypto to their investment portfolios.

 

Read more at https://www.aicpa.org/press/pressreleases/2018/americans-say-volatile-markets-are-easy-way-to-make-profit.html.

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Google Trends picking up

It’s only natural that the massive run-up in bitcoin’s price should be accompanied by an explosion of online interest for the currency. Millions of people who had never heard of it before suddenly saw it soaring in value, and wanted to find out more. That’s why Google Trends has traditionally correlated well with the price of bitcoin.

 

After all, what do you do as a newcomer if you read about bitcoin and decide to buy some? You don’t have a clue where to start, so your first move is most likely to Google it. Armed with that information, you register with Coinbase or another major exchange, go through KYC, and a few days later (or perhaps weeks, if you take your time to think more carefully about it) you are the proud owner of your first bitcoins. So all things being equal, Google searches should pre-figure price movements.

 

That’s more or less what we found last year and this year. Google searches spiked in December and dropped off a cliff when the bubble burst, just like price. Google shows interest as a percentage of its maximum, rather than as absolute search numbers, but the picture is clear: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin

 

The week before 17 December 2017 was the high for bitcoin searches, the same day that bitcoin hit its all-time high. Unfortunately, the page doesn’t give data more granular than a week, so we can’t tell precisely which day was the peak. But the date given is the last day of that week’s results, so we can say that the week leading up to the all-time high was the most active for searches – confirming the theory of interest leading price. Searches bottomed out in June and July, twice touching just 9 percent of their December high.

 

And what now? It’s a little early to say, but keep an eye on the Bitcoin Trends page, because it looks like interest might be just starting to pick up again.

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Bitcoin dominance is a metric of crypto failure, not success

Bitcoin dominance – the proportion of total crypto market cap occupied by bitcoin – has hit 50% again.

It’s the first time bitcoin dominance has been above 50% in 2018. The last time it was above 50% was December 2017. However, back at the beginning of 2017, BTC dominance was around 85%. It had rarely dipped below 80% in the whole history of crypto.

Bitcoin maximalists love to talk about BTC dominance. The thinking goes that bitcoin is best, and every use case for alts can and should move to bitcoin in one way or another. Thus ‘dominance’ is the best metric for the success of bitcoin: for bitcoin to succeed, everything else must fail.

 

This is a ridiculous viewpoint, for more than one reason.

  1. It’s classic zero-sum thinking. Crypto isn’t competing against crypto, it’s competing against fiat.
  2. Bitcoin can still be incredibly useful and important – and 100 times its current market cap – and still have less than 50% overall market share, or even 10%.
  3. As the number of altcoins increases, and the number of crypto tokens used by businesses for many and various purposes, the market cap of non-bitcoin crypto will inevitably increase. A million tiny but genuinely useful projects with $1 million valuation is a trillion dollars. None of these threaten bitcoin. Collectively, they don’t indicate bitcoin is less valuable either.
  4. These ‘alts’ include tokens like Tether, TrueUSD and other fiat-backed cryptos that add to market cap but don’t compete with bitcoin. As the ecosystem grows, so will the proportion of market cap occupied by stablecoins. That actually reflects demand for bitcoin, while reducing dominance.
  5. Blockchain applications and tokens do a lot of different things. A LOT. They’re not all money, or a store of value – digital gold – like bitcoin. They don’t compete for bitcoin’s #1 use case.

A higher rate of bitcoin dominance isn’t a sign of health in the overall crypto world, or a sign of the success of crypto. Higher dominance indicates less confidence in crypto as a whole, with traders exiting initiatives that might drive forward blockchain adoption. It’s akin to the market deciding that mobile communication doesn’t have much of a future, that innovation isn’t necessary or desirable, and piling into Apple shares because they have one major product that does happen to generate revenues.

 

In the future, the best case scenario would be for bitcoin to be the largest crypto – by some significant multiple, whether that’s 10x or 100x – but to occupy far less than 50% of overall market cap.

 

TL;DR Dominance is a terrible metric of success. Ratio of #1:#2 crypto is a better one.

 

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Bitcoin needs speculators

One of the big criticisms of bitcoin by mainstream media and much of the public is its volatility.

 

How can anything that claims to be a currency expect users to put up with 5-10% daily swings in value, or a 70% loss over the space of a few weeks, as happened at the beginning of 2018 

 

And they have a point. While bitcoin has proven a good long-term store of value (ask anyone who bought it more than a year ago), it fluctuates a little too much for the likes of ordinary folks. If bitcoin grows by another 10x or 100x, and especially if institutional money and derivatives come in, that volatility will be attenuated. Right now bitcoin is just a tiny, $100 billion commodity, which is nothing in the grand scheme of global finance. At $7 trillion – roughly the value of all gold – those swings would be far less, thanks to the deeper orderbooks and higher liquidity. (Though remember: gold itself isn’t exactly stable, despite its reputation as a store of value.)

So how do you get from $100 billion to $7 trillion?

The only realistic way for this to happen is through speculation. Price discovery, turbocharged. Bitcoin needs greater awareness, it needs to consolidate and increase its network effect, and it needs to pick up a whole lot more use cases – not least those ETFs and futures we’ve been hearing so much about. It needs to be used as a global means of transfer, as an asset used in retirement funds and by investment managers.

Speculation is a reflection of its potential: a feature, not a bug. It goes with the territory at this point. Sometimes we overdo it. Sometimes we go too far the other way. Price almost never coincides with value. It’s all part of the process of figuring out – as fast as we possibly can – what we collectively think bitcoin is worth.

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