It’s the Easter holiday, so we’ll take a break from our short-term market analysis to look at the big picture.
In our opinion the picture for bitcoin is more uncertain than ever for the short term, good for the medium term and excellent for the long term.
The context for short-term uncertainty is that single huge buy of 20,000 BTC, which took place suddenly after 15 months of the bear market. When BTC abruptly trades $1,000 higher, you have to be mindful of the possibility it will crash just as fast. At the same time, this did paint a higher high, and a degree of confidence has returned to the crypto market as a result. Traders are balancing their disbelief that this happened and that it could continue with their growing optimism.
In the medium-to-long-term, of course, we believe that bitcoin has a bright future. Whether the bear market has ended or not, it’s closer to the end than the beginning and all the indications are that adoption will continue apace in the coming years.
There are several zones of interest for the coming days and weeks:
- The $4,900-5,000 area, which has acted as support since the move up, and will act as resistance if price drops below it.
- $4,200: the major resistance that BTC broke at the beginning of April to create a higher high. A retest of this level as support would be potential confirmation or invalidation of the new uptrend.
- 200-weekly moving average retest. This will doubtless be a strong buy zone, from around $3,500 down to around $3,200.
- Lower than $3,100 – our previous low for this cycle – and we can expect a drop into the $2,000 range and another leg down for the bear market.
Major analysts are split between different scenarios, with some bullish and some bearish, and some still holding to their belief that sub–$2k prices are likely.
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