1. Checking the price of bitcoin is the first thing you do in the morning. Not grab a coffee. Not say ‘Good morning’ to your beloved. Not feed the cat. It’s grab your phone while you’re still half asleep and see which way BTC went in the night.
2. Your thumb has RSI, from swiping down to refresh Blockfolio so many times.
3. That’s Repetitive Strain Injury, by the way. If you read RSI and assumed it meant Relative Strength Index, you’re probably obsessed with chart indicators.
4. You can’t look at a city skyline without seeing volume bars. You can’t look at a mountain range without seeing price spikes.
5. Somehow, you got really good at mental math. You can do complicated sums in your head – but only if they involve exchange rates for bitcoin and altcoins.
6. You feel an overwhelming urge to draw lines on things as a means of predicting the future. If you were in hospital, you’d probably be drawing support and resistance levels on your heart-rate monitor to figure out if you’ll survive.
7. Your F5 key is blank. There’s a dip where it’s worn away from refreshing CoinMarketCap.
8. You only have online friends. You stopped seeing half your real-world friends when they laughed at you for buying crypto. The other half stopped seeing you when it turned out you were right.
9. You haven’t had 8 hours sleep since… well, since crypto.
10. You’re still kicking yourself for buying that beer/mining rig/sunglasses for BTC back in 2015. It seemed so cool and smart at the time. Now it’s the most expensive thing you ever bought.

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Сообщение You know you’ve been in crypto too long when… появились сначала на Crypto inferno.

Bitcoin price prediction is a huge part of the crypto sector. There is a whole industry of ‘experts’ looking to make a living – not from trading, but from ‘advising’ others how to trade. Some of these will confidently tell you where bitcoin is going to go. The more confident they are, and the more short-term their predictions, the more you should view them with skepticism.

Let’s note first off, there’s a saying. Those who can, do. Those who can’t, teach. Those who write ‘analysis’ and predictions often have little (successful) experience of trading. Unsurprisingly, those who are good at what they do either operate on their own, or run subscription services. Good information is valuable, after all.

The thing is, bad information is valuable too, in its own way. Simplifying matters a little, every ‘good’ trade has a ‘bad’ trader on the other side of it. Half of all money that takes a position must be wrong. The disclaimers on most forex platforms suggest that around 10% of successful traders are taking that money from the 90% of failures.

Aside from low quality, there’s a reality that few analysts mention – which is that markets just don’t work the way people think.

Masses and classes

Markets are fluid, evolving, and – especially in the short-term – irrational. Calling markets consistently is actually impossible. The best traders don’t do this at all. What they really do is adapt their thinking as they see the situation changing, looking to minimise risk while maximising return. That way, it doesn’t matter if they make losing trades more often than winning ones (and many do lose often). The point is that the losses are small, thanks to their risk control, and the wins are big, thanks to the return potential of those trades.

The other thing is, don’t rely on ‘news’ to drive price. Expert traders sometimes talk about information for the masses, and information for the classes (this video is a great introduction). ‘Information’ provided by the mainstream media is useless, because professional traders know it before it hits the headlines.

For the record, Inferno won’t give you price predictions. What we do is give a sense of the overall market. We won’t tell you what is going to happen, because no one knows that. But we can help you figure out where the areas of risk and opportunity lie.

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Сообщение Crypto trading analysis: why you’re probably doing it wrong появились сначала на Crypto inferno.

Bitcoin has its fair share of critics as well as fanatics. It’s something that polarises opinion. But there are those so rabid in their denunciation of crypto that it tips over into insanity. These are some of the professional Bitcoin Bears you should be able to identify.

Peter Schiff. Gold is good, bitcoin is bad. Peter has made a career out of shilling gold, and now there’s a new kid in town. Naturally, Peter says bitcoin isn’t as good as gold, because it’s not shiny and heavy. Peter knows there’s a ‘massive inflationary recession’ coming, and gold is going to be the go-to safe haven asset when it does. Everyone needs to buy gold. Forget bitcoin, it’s going back to $3,000 and then lower.

Nouriel Roubini. No discussion of Bears could be complete without mention of ‘Dr Doom’. Nouriel has a very visceral hatred of Bitcoin, which is made far worse by the fact that he has been warning people to stay away from it ever since it was in double digits back in 2013. With no fear that he could be on the wrong side of history, Roubini clings to his success in predicting the Global Financial Crisis as proof that he is smarter than you are, and that he is right about Bitcoin too. Watch his tirades against crypto, the veins on his forehead bulging, the foam on his lips, the rage that seeps from every pore of his skin. Make no mistake: this is personal for him.

Donald Trump. The Don hasn’t said much about bitcoin, but he’s not a fan. His one tweet to date on bitcoin says as much: ‘I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air. Unregulated Crypto Assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including drug trade and other illegal activity….’ Most of all, though, he hates Libra, which is a little bit Bitcoin-y. It’s not worth bothering to understand the differences, though, because anything that isn’t the US dollar is junk.

Jamie Dimon. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon has been cross about bitcoin for over five years, rivalling Nouriel for his commitment to hating crypto. ‘It’ll eventually blow up. It’s a fraud, OK?’ he said in 2017. He once threatened to sack any of his traders who got into bitcoin. ‘You can’t have a business where people can invent a currency out of thin air and think the people buying it are really smart. It’s worse than tulip bulbs, OK?’ Presumably he thinks creating currency out of thin air is a job for banks, which is why JP Morgan is the first bank to have tested a crypto coin for settlement.

Paul Krugman. Ah Paul, Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, and New York Times columnist. You’re not really a proper bear, not like Nouriel. It’s just that your economic criticism of Bitcoin in your article ‘Bitcoin is evil’ from 2013 made you a poster boy of the anti-coiners. And it’s really not fair that people keep dredging up that old quote of yours. Hey, remember back in 1998 when you said that ‘By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s’? Oops.

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Сообщение Inferno guide to Bitcoin Bears появились сначала на Crypto inferno.

Bitcoin, the original blockchain, is an open network. Anyone can join it, use it, run a full node, or start a mining node. There are no restrictions of who gets to be a part of the network.

That’s great for transparency and trust, but it has its drawbacks. Since anyone can use the network, malicious activities are possible, from DDoS to 51% attacks. And of course, bitcoin can be used for criminal purposes; no one can stop you sending bitcoin to anyone else.

For regular individuals, this is a price worth paying. Having a blockchain and form of money that is free from interference is hugely important. And form of control by companies or governments increases the risk of intervention, and that could mean users not being able to access their funds. So open blockchains are here to stay: they’re just too valuable to expect them to go away, and it’s not possible for regulators to shut them down. Similarly, small businesses are happy with open blockchains, which offer greater transparency and auditability than their current centralised providers.

But corporations and government aren’t happy with that. They need greater reliability and network stability, higher throughput, and predictability for fees and other properties.

Permissioned blockchains can deliver this by keeping the network tight and only allowing approved actors to use it. By running a small number of approved nodes, it’s possibly to avoid most of the uncertainty of open blockchains, ensure greater network stability, and avoid the need for fees. Depending on how the network is structured, you can also prevent bad actors from using it, or kick them off for serious offences.

There are already various permissioned ledger solutions out there, many of them based on existing blockchain technology. We can expect more of these to arise as governments and corporations look for infrastructure partners. 

In most cases, the regular crypto community won’t benefit from these – there won’t be ICOs, and the tokens won’t be designed to increase in value. But there may be other ways in which it’s good for the crypto sector.

Overall, it could be good for crypto just as a way of raising awareness – just like Facebook’s Libra has brought Bitcoin into front and centre for Congress. There may also be open blockchain platforms that launch permissioned functionality. Waves Enterprise, for example, will allow entities to launch permissioned networks of their own, securing them on the main Waves chain and bringing additional demand to the WAVES token that powers the open blockchain.

Then there are initiatives like VPLedger, which is designed from the ground up for businesses use. This includes KYC as a mandatory condition of entry for every user, and a network of a couple of dozen nodes. However, the project still has a commitment to decentralise its governance completely, meaning it could prove a valuable addition to a future decentralised economy and become a host for many interesting projects.

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Сообщение Are permissioned ledgers the future of blockchain for business? появились сначала на Crypto inferno.

In the first part of this article, we looked at the unlikely coincidence that Dorian Satoshi Nakamoto – the man unfairly and inaccurately outed as Bitcoin’s creator by Newsweek – lived just a mile away from Hal Finney, a man who was involved in Bitcoin’s origins.

The theory goes that this can’t be a coincidence. Instead, one assumption is the cypherpunks who created Bitcoin chose Dorian as a kind of mascot, for one reason or another. But maybe there’s another explanation. And maybe it’s as simple as this:

Cypherpunk City

The cypherpunk movement started in California and has kept its roots there. Back in 1992 a group of twenty or thirty mathematicians and computer scientists met to discuss some of the most pressing and concerning developments in the advance of communications technology, including privacy. Timothy C. May, author of the Crypto Anarchist Manifesto, lived in Corralitos, California. Eric Hughes, a mathematician from the University of California, Berkeley was there. So was John Gilmore, a computer scientist and (later) an internet activist. There were, and are, lots of cypherpunks in the Bay Area of California. A population of around 8 million is packed into 7,000 square miles. If the Bay Area was a perfect circle, it would be less than 100 miles across.

The point is, there are lots of cypherpunks within a fairly small area. Now, what are the odds that someone with the same name as Bitcoin’s creator – or not quite the same – lived close to one or other of them?

‘Nakamoto’ isn’t a super common name, like Smith. But it’s not exactly rare, either. According to different directories, there are probably a hundred in California alone, and quite possibly more. One site suggests there are a total of three Satoshi Nakamotos living in the US. Odds on there are more, since these are just the ones recorded in those directories, and in some cases, middle names may have been omitted. 

Here’s how the math stacks up. California has 12% of the US population but a third of the nation’s 15 million Asians. So even if there really were only three Satoshi Nakamotos in the US, statistically there’s more than a 50% chance that at least one of them would live in California. And since one quarter of the Bay Area’s population are Asian, you might reasonably expect to find a Satoshi Nakamoto living there – especially if you looked for Nakamotos with a middle name of Satoshi, too. And if you live in the Bay Area, there’s a very good chance you live near a cypherpunk – within a few miles at most, and probably a lot closer.

Statistically, it’s not particularly unlikely that Dorian Nakamoto lived near a cypherpunk like Hal Finney. But let’s not let that get in the way of a good conspiracy theory.

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Сообщение The strange story of Hal Finney and Dorian Nakamoto, Part 2 появились сначала на Crypto inferno.

Hal Finney was a giant in the Bitcoin scene. He was a prominent cypherpunk who worked on landmark privacy projects, including PGP and anonymous remailers. He was one of just a handful of people to reply positively to Satoshi Nakamoto’s early posts on the Cryptography Mailing list, announcing his ideas about a truly peer-to-peer electronic currency; most members simply dismissed it without much thought. He corresponded with Satoshi, helped him refine the idea, mined a few bitcoins and then drifted away from the project. He came back later, in 2010, sharing ideas on the bitcointalk forum. By this stage, he was suffering from Lou Gehrig’s disease, and died in 2015.

Could Hal have actually been Satoshi? It sounds possible: he’s one of very few people in the world with the right background, interests and expertise. However, it seems unlikely. He was actually less involved than most people assume. And apart from anything else, Hal specifically said he wasn’t Satoshi. You can read his thoughts about Bitcoin and Satoshi on bitcointalk:

When Satoshi announced Bitcoin on the cryptography mailing list, he got a skeptical reception at best. Cryptographers have seen too many grand schemes by clueless noobs. They tend to have a knee jerk reaction.

I was more positive. I had long been interested in cryptographic payment schemes. Plus I was lucky enough to meet and extensively correspond with both Wei Dai and Nick Szabo, generally acknowledged to have created ideas that would be realized with Bitcoin. I had made an attempt to create my own proof of work based currency, called RPOW. So I found Bitcoin fascinating.

When Satoshi announced the first release of the software, I grabbed it right away. I think I was the first person besides Satoshi to run bitcoin. I mined block 70-something, and I was the recipient of the first bitcoin transaction, when Satoshi sent ten coins to me as a test. I carried on an email conversation with Satoshi over the next few days, mostly me reporting bugs and him fixing them.

Today, Satoshi’s true identity has become a mystery. But at the time, I thought I was dealing with a young man of Japanese ancestry who was very smart and sincere. I’ve had the good fortune to know many brilliant people over the course of my life, so I recognize the signs.

After a few days, bitcoin was running pretty stably, so I left it running. Those were the days when difficulty was 1, and you could find blocks with a CPU, not even a GPU. I mined several blocks over the next days. But I turned it off because it made my computer run hot, and the fan noise bothered me. In retrospect, I wish I had kept it up longer, but on the other hand I was extraordinarily lucky to be there at the beginning. It’s one of those glass half full half empty things.

The next I heard of Bitcoin was late 2010, when I was surprised to find that it was not only still going, bitcoins actually had monetary value. I dusted off my old wallet, and was relieved to discover that my bitcoins were still there. As the price climbed up to real money, I transferred the coins into an offline wallet, where hopefully they’ll be worth something to my heirs.

So what about Dorian?

Hal had a reputation for honesty and integrity, and we have to assume he wasn’t lying – or laying an elaborate trail of false evidence to put people off the fact he was Satoshi. But there’s another curious twist to this tale.

Back in 2014, Newsweek outed a man called Dorian Satoshi Nakamoto as the creator of Bitcoin. Dorian was an unemployed 64-year-old Japanese-American engineer. Leah McGrath Goodman, who had (poorly) researched and written the article, based much of her belief on the fact that he had the right name. The rest was fanciful or ridiculous – like this: ‘[Dorian’s wife] Mitchell suspects Nakamoto’s initial interest in creating a digital currency that could be used anywhere in the world may have stemmed from his frustration with bank fees and high exchange rates when he was sending international wires to England to buy model trains. “He would always complain about that,” she says.’

The story unravelled fast, and Goodman was left looking stupid to say the least. But there was one bizarre coincidence. Dorian lived just two blocks away from Hal Finney. Finney had been involved at the start of Bitcoin. Was that really a coincidence?

CoinTelegraph made much of the fact it was not. ‘A man with such a unique name living so close? I don’t think so.’ A reddit post made an intriguing argument: ‘I think he [Dorian] is the real person after whom the Satoshi persona was named. The coincidence of having a Satoshi Nakamoto living 2 blocks away from Hal Finney’s home is just too improbable to be ignored. Hal and his cypherpunk counterparts intended for this old friendly retired man whose house had been foreclosed by banksters to be the symbolic figure behind the financial renaissance on behalf of all the victims of the modern financial system. Satoshi is Dorian and I think it’s just fine that way.’

It does sound too improbable to be a coincidence. In the second part of this article, though, we’ll explore that idea further – because the reality is, there’s actually a pretty good explanation.

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Сообщение The strange story of Hal Finney and Dorian Nakamoto, Part 1 появились сначала на Crypto inferno.

I am Sam

Sam I am

Do you like green eggs and ham?

I do not like green eggs and ham

I do not like them, Sam I am

Then… would you like to buy my alts?

They’re nice and tasty with some salt.

I’m already salty, Sam. 

Your altcoin shilling is a scam.

I’ve bought enough of all your alts,

The fact I have them is your fault!

Hmmm. But how about some XRP?

It’s oversold as it can be!

Sam. I do not want your XRP,

It’s going to crash as you can see.

And I already have a ton

Of worthless alts and that is one!

Well how about some Bitcoin Cash?

Some EOS, TRON, IOTA, DASH?

I know your bags are heavy, sir,

But take whichever you prefer!

Sam. I have them all (no BTC).

My bags are heavy as can be.

In fact you are the very reason.

You told me it would be alts season!

Ah yes, the alts will soon explode!

Back the truck up! Buy a load!

Don’t miss the train, it’s leaving soon.

And we’ll be going to the moon!

Your altcoins suck, you stupid clown

The only road they’re on is down.

And every time they try to climb,

Bitcoin spikes another time!

The perfect time to buy more cheap!

I really think you’d love a heap. 

I’ll do a deal on Doge or BAT

What would you say to one like that?

I think I have a better plan,

For where to put your altcoins, Sam.

Now turn around; this might feel wrong:

I’ll shove them back where they belong!

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Сообщение Green alts and ham появились сначала на Crypto inferno.

The bitcoin rally that started in April caught almost everyone off-guard. And while many of the community have experienced previous parabolic rallies, this one is different.

This time, all eyes are on BTC, right from day 1. In the past, the alts have often been dragged along for the ride – some gaining significantly in BTC terms, even as BTC gains in USD terms. The result has been a kind of leveraged increase. 

Take 2017, for example. A look at the Bitcoin Dominance chart shows what happened. The alts rally essentially had three stages. In the first, which started in March 2017, Bitcoin lost market share. Alts gained in BTC terms, going from around 15% of the market to over 60% just three months later. In the same period, bitcoin tripled in price from around $1,000 to $3,000. That’s (roughly) a 10x increase for alts.

Then there was a correction phase for the alts in BTC terms, as bitcoin’s rise accelerated. Over the next six months, Bitcoin Dominance rose back to 60%, as the #1 currency went into a parabolic rise. And then the final phase. Bitcoin topped out at $20k and money rushed into underpriced alts. By January 2018, Dominance was down to 33% as a result.

It’s been trending upwards ever since, the alts atrophying market share back to Bitcoin. And when bitcoin went parabolic earlier this year, it gained in Dominance too, just like in the second phase of the previous bull market.

Right now, Dominance stands at almost 70%. There’s no sign of it stopping yet, either. The direction of movement is very clear, and until the market has some sense that bitcoin’s long-term rise is ending, there’s no reason for money to go back into alts. Max Keiser has suggested that Dominance could hit 80% – close to its long term level, before the alts explosion of 2017. That would mean yet more pain for the alts, many of which are down at BTC lows, even if bitcoin’s rise has meant they maintain or gain dollar value.

The alts aren’t dead, like Keiser says, but many are on life support. It could be a long time, if ever, before they reach their all-time highs. Bitcoin is the king, and until it shows signs of stopping, that’s where the attention is. Given this rally is just a few months old, it could be a while to go yet.

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Сообщение Bitcoin Dominance at 70%, could hit 80% появились сначала на Crypto inferno.

Litecoin hit a major milestone earlier this week, with its third halving. Block rewards fell from 25 LTC to 12.5 LTC. Like Bitcoin, Litecoin halvings happen every four years, so the next one will take place in 2023. 

Litecoin is worth watching because it often signals what Bitcoin will do. It’s not exactly the same as Bitcoin, of course. But Litecoin is a large, well-established proof-of-work network, with a large trading community and high liquidity. So it’s a reasonable way of gauging Bitcoin’s future moves.

Litecoin has a total supply of 84 million LTC – four times the supply of Bitcoin. 63 million, or around three-quarters of these, have now been mined. With 12.5 new LTC being created every 2.5 minutes, that’s 2.6 million new LTC per year, or a little over 4%.

Litecoin and Bitcoin

Since block rewards are cut in half, it’s reasonable to expect some smaller miners to turn off their rigs – it becomes uneconomical to mine unless the price rises to compensate for the reduced supply. Just after the halving, Litecoin creator Charlie Lee tweeted,’Since the halving, 12 blocks have been found in 17 minutes. Seems like miners have not shut off their hashrate at all. Instead, we are mining at a rate of a block every 1.4 minutes on average, which is much faster than the expected 2.5 minutes. Litecoin network is healthy!’

It’s still early days, but can we gain a picture of what’s happening right now? And whether the same might occur for Bitcoin at its own Halvening in May 2020?

Firstly, price spiked around the halving itself, before dropping sharply. Overall, though, LTC is up over 200% in USD this year, even if it’s down in BTC terms.

Hashrate does seem to be holding steady. It’s still a little early to know for sure, but it appears that most miners have factored in the change. No doubt some will go offline in the coming weeks, but for now, little seems to have changed.

All of this suggests that miners and traders have been planning well in advance. The reduction in block rewards was priced in over a period of around 6 months. 

If we see the same for Bitcoin – if – then that looks like a major Christmas rally could be on the cards, and the network will remain strong post-halving.

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Сообщение Litecoin halvening – what next? появились сначала на Crypto inferno.

Max Keiser has been buying and promoting bitcoin since it was $1. The former Wall Street trader is big on gold and bitcoin, seeing the digital currency as the heir to shiny yellow metal. While Keiser’s long-term predictions for bitcoin are nothing new – he has repeatedly stated he expects $100,000 per BTC in the relatively near term, and has even entertained McAfee’s prediction of $1 million by the end of 2020 – this time, he has chosen a much closer target for his optimistic forecast.

On Saturday, Keiser tweeted, ‘I’m sensing #Bitcoin will cross $15,000 this week. Confidence in central governments, central banks, and centralized, fiat money is at a multi-decade low.’ He says he even spent another $10,000 on BTC, he was so confident.

The self-described ‘tweet poet’ later later explained, ‘Fiat chaos engulfing global economy. A perfect storm for #Bitcoin — up $1,000 since I mentioned earlier today; my gut feeling is, we see $15,000 this week.’

The background to this forecast is the mess of different factors pointing to serious problems ahead for the global economy. There are the trade wars between China and the US, which show no signs of abating; when Trump announced further tariffs on Chinese imports last week, the stock markets fell heavily. The Federal Reserve also cut interest rates, reflecting an adjustment in the light of slightly weaker growth prospects than expected.

Then of course there is Brexit, and the threat of the UK leaving the EU without a deal. This has increased sharply since Boris Johnson became the new Prime Minister, and it leaves the whole European trading bloc vulnerable. That’s to say nothing of the continuing problems in Venezuela and elsewhere in Latin America, or the threat from a nuclear North Korea.

Keiser is right; trust in centralised institutions is at a multi-decade low, and Bitcoin is a means to hedge and move wealth without them. He is known for his optimistic predictions about bitcoin, which do not always prove correct. On the other hand, he has also proven right about bitcoin’s inexorable growth since 2011.

Inferno’s conclusion? It could be a very bullish week for bitcoin, as the recent correction comes to an end. $15k feels like a little too much to us – but if it’s offered, we’ll take it.

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Сообщение Max Keiser – BTC could go to $15k this week появились сначала на Crypto inferno.