TL;DR the slow grind continues.
And so it goes on, with the rhythm of dump, consolidate, dump, consolidate evident on the daily chart. Traders await resolution to the bear trend as a whole and the magnetic appeal of the 200 weekly MA in the immediate term, which seems to be offering gently rising support for now. Bitcoin closed last week almost sat on the 200 WMA line, which is currently at $3,300.
The big news this week is the QuadrigaCX debacle, which is either colossally bad luck or a blatant exit scam, depending on who you ask. The exchange – one of Canada’s largest – has suspended trading after the supposed death of its CEO, who took with him the private keys to its cold storage. In total some 26,500 BTC, 11,000 BCHABC, 11,000 BCHSV, 35,000 BTG, 200,000 LTC and 430,000 ETH are on ice, and the exchange allegedly owes its customers almost $200 million.
There is lots that is suspicious about this episode, and the ‘lost’ QuadrigaCX coins may not be lost at all. They therefore still overshadow the market, and we may not know much more about how they will impact trading until it is too late. As yet, the event has not proven a catalyst for lower lows – but there’s still time.
QuadrigaCX aside, wider opinion from major industry figures is mixed. Mike Novogratz recently tweeted: ‘Realizing having tweeted about crypto in a while. It’s a grind. Don’t think we head north for at least a few more months. Always take longer for institutions to move. Very confident they will. Tons of activity under the hood. Stay the course.’
Meanwhile Charlie ‘Satoshi Lite’ Lee, creator of Litecoin, thinks a new all-time high will be reached within the next three years. Based on the pattern of the last bear market, that sounds quite plausible at this point.
Brave New Coin has a different perspective, noting:
A bottom may be close, however. Exchange order book data indicates a large buy wall emerging on major exchange Coinbase Pro around the low- $3000 level that will likely prevent, at least in the short run, a push down towards a $2000 level (Coinbase data is used because it is more difficult to set up faked or spoofed bids because bids are fiat backed and faking bids has much higher costs involved).
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