TL;DR up from here?
Bitcoin is looking like it has bottomed after its recent volatility, though concerns are still present. Let’s take a look at what the market has done over the course of the last few weeks:
- A parabolic rise to the year high of $13,880
- A retrace of 31% down to $9,614
- Another run-up, stopping short of the year high at $13,200: a lower high
- Another retrace, on lower volume, bottoming above the last one: a higher low
- A perfect bounce off the 50-day moving average
On the latest correction, RSI on the daily fell to 45, its lowest at any point since February.
At this point, it looks like the correction might be over and bitcoin will consolidate a while longer before moving back up to test the $14k line. However, we should be aware of that higher low and lower high. It would not be surprising if bitcoin bounced up and down for a while within the $10-12k range in an ever-tightening band before making a final decision. The fact that bitcoin neatly respected the 50DMA is encouraging, and at the time of writing bitcoin is trading at $10,800.
BTC did find resistance at the 21-day EMA, around $11,100. Overcoming this is important to establish that the uptrend is still in progress.
Bitcoin has been in the news as very before since President Trump tweeted his thoughts, and regulators have been weighing in on both Facebook’s Libra and Bitcoin itself. The proposed ‘Keep Big Tech Out of Finance Act’ has been unveiled, and Facebook will be involved in congressional hearings to explain how it will avoid the abuses for which cryptocurrency is well known. The Bill will effectively prevent tech corporations from acting as banks or other financial institutions, and prevents them from launching digital currencies that fulfil the purposes of money.
It’s a time of great uncertainty, and that’s probably being reflected in the market. There are both positive and negative elements to what has been reported. The medium-term trend could move either way at this point.
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