TL;DR waiting patiently for breakout…
We have been stuck in a very narrow range for a week now. There has been some movement outside of it, briefly, but price keeps coming back to a band between $3,650 and $3,570. Volumes are unimpressive and significantly down from their recent peaks.
These are conditions that are perfect for big moves. Price consolidates, Bollinger Bands squeeze, like a spring coiling; traders are waiting for their cues and when they come, the move could be violent. And it could be either way; the low volumes means the market can be moved hard and whales are in the habit of clearing out shorts or longs from time to time, only to send the price in the other direction when they’re done.
The overall picture is still somewhat bearish, with BTC trading below the 50-day moving average, RSI on the higher timeframes below 50 and bitcoin constantly making lower highs. Until that changes, it’s easier for price to move downwards than up. That does not preclude short squeezes, of course. It just means that, all things being equal, traders will ultimately favour selling. And we haven’t yet seen the retest of the 200 weekly MA we’ve been calling for.
In other news, the markets have taken the hack of Cryptopia in their stride; there is no panic like there was when Bitstamp was hacked at the beginning of 2019 – this was not a capitulation trigger. It is a far smaller exchange, of course, with losses stretching to only a few million dollars – much of which has been frozen when it hit other exchanges. In the wake of the Cryptopia hack, Binance CEO ‘CZ’ has apparently suggested that the solution is… using trustworthy exchanges.
Store coins yourself. You fight hackers yourself, and guard from losing wallet yourself. Computer breaks, USBs gets lost.
Store on an exchange. Only use the most reputable, proven secure, exchanges.
Or move to DEX, disrupt ourselves.
He gained much criticism for this, as can be expected. Meanwhile, Binance is launching a GBP and EUR crypto platform in Jersey, which is proving highly popular – potentially as traders hedge money against the effects of Brexit.
That’s all for now! Tomorrow we’ll be giving an update on what’s going on with Bakkt.
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